Monday, December 12, 2005

Pol - A Stasis In The System

“Majoritarian systems are better for democracy, because they produce strong and effective governments” Discuss.


“A political system is not a group of people, a huddle of buildings, or even a carefully constructed machine. It is a set of social relationships, and it’s boundary is set to the limit of those relationships”(Calvert, 2002)

When we take this to be the definition of a political system it refers to a self-governing state and the way in which the institutions are related to one another. The power of these institutions is limited within the political boundaries of the area it governs directly, either country or state borders. It is true that almost every political system used in any of the countries around the world provides us with a unique way of connecting these institutions and distributing the power within the political system. In an era where the politics and movements of one country can have potentially global-reaching consequences emphasis of selecting an appropriate political system is strong. These differences in chosen systems come around because of the traditions, history and needs of a country’s citizens are varied across the globe.

However, most of the countries in the world have a democratic system that falls into two general characteristics (I say most countries because I recognise that some countries are ruled by dictatorships or tyrannies, the antithesis of ‘democracy’). Arend Lijphart has put the modern touchstone for categorising political systems forward in his book ‘Patterns of democracy’ (1999). In this he separates the general characteristics of all democratic systems into two main categories, the ‘Westminster’ or Majoritarian model and the Consensus model.

The Westminster model, named after the British parliament is a mode of democratic governance where a political party with the most votes in an election is rewarded with a bare majority in parliament, producing a strong majority government which is usually very fast and efficient in creating and implementing new legislature. The consensus model, on the other hand, is one that – through various methods of proportional representation – produces a parliament in which as many different views within the voting region are represented, this typically leads to a coalition government; seen by many as weak, and somewhat inefficient, through the need for compromise.

Lijphart lists ten general qualities that each model has in common regardless of which specific way a country has arranged the political institutions, with aspects of the Westminster model being the polar opposite of the matching consensus feature and vice versa. In this part of the essay I intend to show that the British system, once considered to be the epitome of majoritarian systems, has naturally adapted and changed to better represent the people within the boundaries of the system.

According to Lijphart, the third trait of a majoritarian system is that elections are contests between only two parties, in a first-past-the-post-esqué electoral system. In Britain however, as a reflection of voter apathy towards the two main parties, there has been a steady rise in the popularity and power of a third party, the Liberal Democrats who in the most recent general election polled a head-turning twenty-two percent of the vote.
[1] Because the emphasis on a strong government is high in the UK the Liberal Democrats currently occupy a lower number of seats than they would have received under a proportional system. Whilst this disproportionality may be a healthy device for producing a stronger government it runs against the grain of democracy, where as many people as possible are represented. With the rise of a third party into what has previously always been a two horse race – even when presented with such a handicap in the vote-seat distribution – I hypothesise that there will be increasing, perhaps even sufficient, pressure on the government to modify or completely change the electoral system at some point within the next generation or so. The change of the seat distribution formula would ultimately create a balance between a stronger majority government and democratic representation.

Two other criterion of Lijphart’s breakdown of a majoritarian political system is a ‘Unitary, Centralised government’ and the ‘concentration of legislative power’. These notions have also been challenged in the UK through several political changes, which have recently included the infiltration of Parliaments powers from above and below. The European Union has compromised, from above, the national parliamentary sovereignty previously enjoyed by the UK government. From below, devolution has also diluted Westminster’s power in Wales and particularly Scotland, with the Scottish Parliament now making increasingly important decisions; forming a Scottish opinion – and often introducing laws – regarding topics such as organ donation, the nuclear energy debate, drugs laws, education, health. Only matters with a UK-wide or international implications are still exclusively dealt with solely in Westminster.
[2]

These relatively new changes show that the Westminster model has began evolving from a strong majoritarian government, which was a very poor reflection of ‘truly’ democratic system, into a pseudo-federal structure that, superficially, has created the idea of fairer representation of many more citizens under the labels of Scottish, British or European. It also shows that a ‘strong and efficient’ government is not the perfect answer and that the British nation as a whole prefer some degree of sub-state autonomy and with encouraged weakening of the central government in order to have a greater degree of representivity.

Robert Dahl has put forward the notion that majoritarian systems are favourable because they have a positive influence on smaller parties. He argues that the concentration of power in a strong government drives smaller parties to develop a ‘desire for majority rule’ (1989) and maintains the idea that collective decisions are for the best. However when this is put into practice, I believe that it can lead to the dilution of a party’s policy, in order to generate support. The British Labour and Conservative parties are perfect examples of this because over the years their policies have changed from being moderately left and right respectively, to the stage where they can both be viewed as two centre parties with a relatively small number of different policy stances when compared to several decades ago. Whilst this may be acting as a catalyst, driving the parties towards great-success the mass appeal synonymous with catch-all politics also significantly narrows the political spectrum, giving the voters less options, thus reducing democratic accountability. I also believe that this has been a predominant factor in the decline of partisanship within the voting population.

Consensus based models of democracy have many appearances from country to country because there is no desire to replicate a ‘perfect’ system, unlike the Westminster design and majority democracies. Many of the ‘consensus countries’ have differing arrangements of government that may mirror an array of similar sections present in many other consensus systems. From this angle, consensus models resemble the idea of a child’s pick and mix where a person chooses all of the preferred parts and mixes them in one bag. Because of this pick ‘n’ Mix nature it is only possible to cover a select few models, and plucking out the most general of features.

One of the worlds more ‘democratic’ political systems, Finland’s consensus-based model, is infamously characterised by ‘governmental instability’ (Webb, 2002). Because of the because of it’s combination of semi-presidential and parliamentary elements with a federal-style election process it has led to a fragmented parliament where a coalition government is unavoidable. Webb notes that between 1917 and 1997 the main institution with the most executive power, the Finnish cabinet, saw sixty-seven coalitions; almost making the system in Finland the embodiment of Political instability. This shows the more extreme side of the link between a high level of democracy and a lower measure of government strength.

However, consensus systems are not always a bad thing for the progression of a country. Japan, which operates using a western-style democracy – imposed by the Allies after WWII – upon eastern values has seen many positive changes in the last decade. This system vests the majority of state-orientated power into a moderately strong bi-cameral parliament known as the ‘diet’.
[3] By making important decisions to politically aligning itself with Americas international values, and entwining its economy with China, Japan is once again on the route to becoming one of the strongest nations in Asia (Watts, 2005) with a relatively stable mix of democracy and government strength.


The volatility and constant reincarnation of the French political system over the last few centuries shows that many of its citizens have been discontent with previous arrangements of government, both strong and weak. The current blend between presidential and parliamentary elements, with power repeatedly fluctuating between the President and the National Assembly, appears to have hushed the restless population, where the level of democracy is high and the government is still quite powerful and efficient. The popularly elected President, giving him/her more political weight (Theen, 1996), seems to be the crucial mechanism that stands out as reinforcing an added layer of democracy. In a way, the French struggle for the perfect democracy can be seen as a microcosm for the Global quest to perfect the political system; creating a democratic set-up where the government is neither too strong nor overly brittle.

In conclusion I believe current arrangement of classifying democracies as either majoritarian or consensus may not be viable for much longer if more majoritarian-based countries follow the direction of the British model, in that they begin to progressively incorporate more elements of political systems that have traditionally belonged exclusively to consensus systems. If this was to be the case I would suggest that the former majoritarian states would use the opportunity to select parts from both versions, creating a third, hybrid, system. The same could also be put forward regarding consensus systems attempting to solidify the powers of a single institution within their political arrangement.

The idea of the ‘greater good’ is one that has been around for several hundred years. This is the belief that parliament acts as a ‘deliberative assembly of one nation, with one interest’ (Burk, 1744). Whilst this may be a romanticised notion, the general outlook of national interest should still hold some importance today. Questions attached to this will always raise points of minority oppression, however, even up to today’s current state of ‘democracy’ and it’s many forms, ‘pure democracy’ can rarely be achieved in practice amongst large groups, let alone an entire nation. The more homogenised the opinion of a faction is, the closer an outcome will be to that of a purely democratic one, however due to national-level differences in ethnicity, gender, age, sex, morals and beliefs there will always have to be some compromise between these two opposing forces.



This graph best illustrates the recurring relation between the strength and efficiency of a government and how ‘democratic’ the situation is. A country like Finland would appear towards the right hand side of the red line whereas a country like the UK would appear on the left side and appears to be, over time, working its way towards some middle ground. With a shade of irony the territory in the middle of the graph where many countries are striving towards, much like in any mass-democratic system (an oxymoron within itself) there has to be a compromise between both sides.




Word Count 1,884

Bibliography:

Burk, Edmund. “Speech at the conclusion of the poll”. 3rd November 1774. From:

Blaug, Ricardo. “Democracy: A Reader”. Edinburgh Uni. Press. 1998. Page 151.


Calvert, Peter. “Comparative politics: an introduction”. Harlow: Longman 2002.

Dahl, Robert. “Democracy and its critics”. Yale University & New Haven Press, 1989. Page 161.

Lijphart, Arend. “Patterns of Democracy: government forms and performance in thirty-six countries”. New Haven; London, Yale University press. 1999. Chapter 1.


Theen, Rolf H.W. “Comparative Politics: An Introduction to Seven Countries. 3rd Edition”. Prentice Hall, NJ. 1996. Page 104.


Watts, Jonathan. “The Sun Also Rises”. The Guardian Newspaper, 14th November 2005. G2 Supplement. Page 10.

Webb, Paul D. “Political parties in advanced industrial democracies”. Oxford University Press, 2002. Page 185



[2] Taken From: http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/corporate/powers/index.htm
Accessed on 11th December 2005.

[3] Information from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan#Government_and_politics. Accessed on 10th December 2005.

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

I.R. Realism and Cartels

The struggle for power between Cartels and the Governments of Latin America.

In the main body of literature written on South America, and in particular organised crime within the continent, there have been no attempts to explain the behaviour of the Mafia’s or as they are known in the region ‘Cartels’. This essay intends to explain the rise and rise of these organised criminals and the effect that they have had on everyone from the people of Latin America and the US, worldwide Governments from Latin America to Europe. The second part of this paper the changing face of the strategies used to combat these organisations, concluding with what may be the best ideas for the future.


For the reason of being impartial many different sources have been used throughout this essay, the result being that the top and bottom ends of the figures used can, and do, differ. Due to the nature of the drug trade there can be no accurate measure of it’s value, the number of victims and how far around the globe it has managed to successfully penetrate.


Organised Crime.

Firstly, to save any confusion, I will explain the definition of ‘Organised Crime’ that I will be using throughout this essay.

“Organised crime is present whenever two or more persons are involved in a common criminal project for a prolonged period of time in order to obtain power and profits”.
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Although there are many constantly evolving definitions of the phrase, this definition holds true to the main part of most modern definitions. The only differing aspect regarding the definition of criminal groups such as the Yakuza, Triads, Mobsters, Mafias and most importantly Cartels, is that they are internationally operating . When this is the case the definition would include that the groups are presently working in two or more countries.

The phrase ‘Columbian Cartel’ mostly conjures up images of assassinations, gun fights and heartless, gargantuan drug smuggling operations, however, upon closer inspection there is much more organisation than meets the eye. Firstly, the Columbian Cartels – as with every form of organised crime – operated multijouristictionally. For example a group in one county or country would be in charge of producing or collecting raw materials, the next faction would be in charge of producing the cocaine, the next for distribution and so on. Internationalised Crime uses the same notion, but requires a group to work in two or more countries.

The main reason for this is safety, so if one part of the operation is arrested or taken out, it has a relatively small impact on the rest of the business. This sophisticated network means that groups work alone, like terrorist cells, with little or no knowledge of the others and only a handful of people know the workings of the entire system. Whilst this is a relatively safe and intricate system it has been argued that it is based on, but not as impassable as the Sicilian Mafia’s structure (Ryan, 1997). The presence of such a powerful Cartel has led to the emergence of two main problems.



Abusing Columbia’s Geography.

Covering a topic of this nature inevitably finishes revolving around Columbia, simply because the bulk of research into organised crime in Latin America has been written on the Columbian Cartels due to their overwhelming success in exploiting the vast profits available from the drugs trade. Looking at the geography of Columbia – and Latin America in general it is easy to see the potential for trade of any kind due to the various ways of fast transportation to larger trading countries like America, be it by land, sea or air.

Almost everything about Columbia, and Latin America in general is perfect for internationalised trading. It is the only country in South America to have coastlines in two different seas, the Pacific and the Caribbean. The latter being more useful for the transportation of illicit good because of the potential stops in many of the Islands such as Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. By land there is the route through Central America witch, again offers many different paths to the US. Finally there is the straight forward possibility of air transport, but again with many possible stops through the any of the countries and islands between South and North America.


The topography of Columbia is another feature that has proven to be extremely useful to the Cartels. Large areas of dense forest and unexplorable marsh land have been utilised to conceal laboratories and air landing strips (Abadinsky, 1994). These factors, combined with the motivation from unthinkable profits generated through selling drugs, were all that was needed to set the ball rolling that would see a small group of criminals from rural Columbia become some of the most infamous people in criminal history.


The scale of the drugs industry.


While no accurate calculation of the scale of the drugs trade can be made due to the secretive nature of this shadow economy. With the growth and compression of the trade there have been many different estimates of its size, with the top and bottom estimates proving to be a significant distance apart.

The Cartels in Columbia certainly fit the International Organised Crime definition, and with the potential cash benefits from entering the drug trade has been the single biggest temptation for people getting involved in the business, it is also one of the driving factors behind the ‘globalisation’ of the Columbian Cartels. For instance, in 1990 it cost a mere £140 to purchase the materials required to make 1 kilogram of cocaine in a laboratory; on the streets of Europe a kilogram would have sold for around £70,000 (Clutterback, 1990). This 50,000% profit is perhaps one of the most simple ways of explaining why organised criminals who engage in the drugs trade manage to attain such vast amounts of hard cash.

For instance, the wealth accumulated by the individual Pablo Escobar – possibly the most infamous, and successful, criminal in history – was so monumental that he tried to barter for his freedom by offering to pay off Columbia’s national debt. He is also reported to have written off $40 Million in notes because it rotted in a basement as there was nowhere else to store it (Robinson, 1998). In the heyday of the Columbian trade three of the Cartel leaders were thought to be among the five richest men in the world, and that was only one Cartel, which didn’t even have a monopoly of the Latin American drugs market.




Explaining the rise of Cartels.


For the purpose of explaining the Cartel’s behaviour I intend to show that the theory of Classical Realism is the only ideology that can even begin to draw a comparison. If only for it having the most pessimistic view of human nature. The very first sentence of the ‘bible’ of classic realism reads ‘International politics, like all politics is a struggle for power’ (Morgenthau, 1949). When the emphasis of this sentence is taken away from the state and projected on to groups within a state it provides a perfect synopsis of the power struggle between the ongoing struggle between the organised criminals and the Government of Columbia.

Classical Realism is also know to distort and twist parts of the human semblance, which depicts a rather bleak vision of reality where humans are ‘pessimistic about the prospect of eliminating war’ (Walt, 2005). Again, this realist viewpoint is almost a perfect explanation for the stigma of bestial behaviour linked to Columbia’s war torn past and periods of violence.

Looking at realists perspective of human being, political realist Thomas Hobbes described the life of man as being ‘solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short’ (1668). At this point is important to note that not all Columbians, nor everyone per se, would be best described by this pessimistic sentence but when coming to describe the cartels ruthless and crude behaviour, again this is a nicely fitting blueprint.

The presence of one of the worlds largest and most infamous has led to several problems, regarded as security issues, in Columbia. The first being that due to the relentless nature of the way that they conduct their business, and in particular their ‘silver or lead’ policy the Cartels have made the problem of violence a much larger issue. Secondly, the money raised by the Cartels has not simply been kept as pure profit, but they have used it to buy influence, from politicians to policemen, making the problem off corruption a national issue.



Violence.


The first negative trait, associated with Cartels is that they have ‘made the pre-existing problem of violence more severe and complex’ (Peeler, 1998). However, violence in Columbia is far from a contemporary element, After the assassination of a praised populist leader in 1949 triggered a period of insurrection and turmoil (Coller, 1990). It is also true that political competition is also no stranger to violence, of the eight civil wars in the nineteenth century no less than six were between two political parties (Kline, 1983). From these facts it is clear to see that Columbia has had a riotous, brutal past.


With regards to the Cartels, the volume and intensity of violence has definitely had a severe impact on the people of Columbia. In 1986 the average murder rate per day, calculated in monthly increments fluctuated between two and six in Medelín and could be anywhere between six and ten in the city of Calí depending on the time of year (Bergquist, 1992). Everybody living in these areas would experience first hand the more dangerous side of the Cartels, with such extreme acts of violence becoming part of daily life.


Several armed groups have dominated most of Columbia’s rural areas, by controlling sections of the countryside and imposing their own laws on communities. Since 1964 the guerrilla group FARC, with around 16,000 fighters has ruled large parts of the countryside. The National Liberation Army (ELN) was also a large contributing factor to violence in Columbia. More recently – and disturbingly – a group of fighters known under the acronym AUC was formed by drug traffickers to fight the previously mentioned groups. These three dominant groups have been the causes for the country’s chronic violent tendencies, and are all on the EU and US lists of terrorist organisations.
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Violence is not limited to the those civilians caught up in the drugs trade through the purchasing of drugs or debts to the Cartels. Public officials and members of political institutions were among the top targets for the Cartels ‘Silver or Lead’ policies, accepting a bribe or being murdered. The judicial system was amongst the hardest institutions hit in the 1980’s with over fifty judges being murdered and hundreds resigning under pressure. (Walker, 1996). Violence or intimidation / threat was used when the Cartels money could not make the Judge more sympathetic to their cause.

Whilst it is true that violence in Columbia has been present for centuries the drugs trade has aggravated this process, making the historic problem one of a new security threat, even for a notoriously violent nation. In the past violence had been used as a ‘catalyst for the masses’ (Fals-Borda, 1969). Civil wars were fought by the people in hope of overthrowing the political system, but now the people were being plunged into the middle of the Cartel’s ‘new’ violence, caught in the crossfire between guerrilla groups, cartels and the paramilitaries. This is also out of the control of most citizens and peasant farmers, who are usually the victims of such violence.

Whilst we can see that the Cartels have predominantly used violence and intimidation against public and institutional figures to create a bedrock of influence, it shows that, in the tradition of Realism not only are these acts brutish, but they are all have one common aspect, the pursuit of power. The second problem is one that managed to slip undetected for quite some time, but is now possibly the biggest black mark against Columbia, and could severely alter its relations with other states; corruption.


Corruption.

Corruption is not only limited to Columbia; Latin America as-a-whole is generally associated with corrupt governments. Of the 146 countries in the 2005 Global Corruption Report – 146 being the most corrupt – Brazil scores 59th, Columbia 60th, Peru 67th, Nicaragua 97th, Argentina 108th and Bolivia an atrocious 122nd.
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Some countries within the area are affected more than others. In Rio De Janeiro the cities military police have been plagued with corruption, ‘entangled with organised crime and accustomed to violent and illegal methods of action’ (Aguero, 1998). The national army had to be called into the city after the 1994 election to control violent crimes associated with narcotrafficking and weapons smuggling.

The idea of a drug cartel illegally becoming part of Latin America’s oldest democracy seems implausible, but underneath the magnifying glass Columbia’s national government is – or at least was, in the heyday of the drugs trade, – rotten to the core. For the citizens of Columbia this severely undermined their rights to free and fair elections, a condition of modern democracy, but for the Cartels it was one of the more beneficial ways to spend their spare change. It has also been put forward that a corrupt political system is ‘more powerful than civil society’ itself (Jordan, 1999).

In one of the worst cases of corruption uncovered Columbian government agent Carlos Rodrigo Polania was found laundering money. He had previously been inspector general of Columbia’s intelligence agency; the liaison official with the DEA, US Customs and Interpol (Freemantle, 1995). Involvement with the drugs cartels at this high level of the national government shows how big the security threat is. Intelligence or counter-intelligence supplied by this bribed agent could have amounted to millions of pounds worth of drugs slipping through the borders.

Douglas Farah coined the phrase ‘Columbianisation’, using it as a description of any countries ‘democracy’ that shows a similarly a high level of corruption (1990). He goes on to argue that these states experience the disintegration of political, economic and social structures and that states are soon hurled towards a permanent position of violence, with assassinations and human rights violations. Looking at this through the eye of security, corruption, as a side-effect of the drug trade, could be more dangerous to the citizens in a country than the actual violence itself, especially when it is present at such highly levels capable of turning a democratic state into a corruption-driven tyranny; where the politicians are more concerned about the interests of the minority Cartels than the majority of the country’s population. In this sense, Cartels can be seen as a very powerful pressure group.

Many writers use other terms for this change in a corrupt political system. ‘Anocracy’ (Foweraker, 2003) is another fashionable term in usage just now. This implies that the state has become so deeply corrupt – but not necessarily through a drug trade – that it has become a blend of democracy and autocracy, where the high up officials maintain power despite democratic procedures. Even in 2003 there was still sufficient evidence to show that the governing party, opposition party, federal institutions and congress had all been infiltrated by Cartels.

I would argue that the dilemma of institutional corruption in Columbia presents more shades of an Oligarchy than anything else described thus far. The Cartels have used their economic leverage (by having politicians on their payrolls) with hard ruthlessness and violence in order to indirectly take control of the country. The rule of many by a small group, through the use of ‘professional’ politicians being used as marionettes, hiding the power behind the scenes. This is yet another device of the cartels used to acquire more power and influence.



The Public perception.


Not only do the cartels enjoy the benefits of having the many of the Nations politicians in their pockets, or wallets, but they also put much of their money into helping the people of Columbia. By the end of the 1980’s they owned several newspapers and broadcasting companies and invested approximately a third of their income into Columbian industry, real estate and agriculture. They were actively involved in more than half of the national football league and gave money to peasant farmers and charities 4. This not only meant that they had the forced backing of politicians, but they were seen as a powerful economic and social entity, using this masquerade to win the public over and lure them into forgetting the more negative aspects of Cartels.

It was also noticeable that after the seizure of Los Rodriguez – a high-ranking cali cartel member – there was a ‘marked decrease in the economic fortunes of the community’ (Moser, 2004). Again, this displays that Cartels didn’t bring just negative aspects to the table regarding the people of Columbia, but that they can also be beneficial to the local everyman.

However the motives for all of the nicer aspects are ambiguous. In the mid 1980’s Columbian president Betancour began a crackdown campaign against the traffickers but was soon forced to dilute his policies with the threat from the Cartels to ‘close down 1,800 businesses and assemble an army of over 18,000 people’ (Napoleoni, 2004: 55). Again this highlights that the driving force behind what could be seen as pseudo-benignity toward the civilians of Columbia was just another method used to obtain power in an almost invisible form or mass bribery.

The international problem of Realist Behaviour.


Corruption at this level poses another problem, state accountability. From an outside states’ point of view it de-legitimises the government and state as not being trustworthy. This could potentially be a larger security issue than anything mentioned because the presence of organised crime in such high level institutions could act as a deterrent for other countries to cooperate with Columbia. The legitimacy of states and how they act internally is one of the major factors that will change the willingness of states to cooperate with one another. The most damaging act to Columbia’s international reputation in recent times has most likely been Pablo Escobar’s infamous ‘jailbreak’ in 1992. Columbia would have appeared an international harlequin as the worlds most infamous criminal walked out of jail.

The aspect of corruption puts the paradigm of Realism between a rock and a hard place. On one side, the behavioural aspect of corruption – using wealth to buy influence – is most obviously related to realism in that the Cartels are using their disposable resources to attain more power. On the other side it completely breaks down everything that Realism is associated with on anything above the state level.

By having infiltrated some of Columbia’s top figures the Cartels have seriously undermined the countries ability to govern itself. Cases such as Carlos Rodrigo Polania highlights that the state, by itself, does not always make international decisions, thus breaking down the State-Centric realist view. It is true however that on a Global scale, these illegal sub-state actors have not been the soul reason – or even the primary reason – the breakdown. It would be foolish to dismiss the influence of International Organisations and legitimate sub-state actors amongst other things as being part of the breakdown of classical Realist thought.

Another problem associated with this is that the government not only loses its power to govern the country successfully, but that it also means that the ability to perform regarding what is best for its citizens, be it human rights, societal security, health security or a more general human security are compromised.



Strike One: Initial Strategies.

In April of 1986 US president Ronald Reagan officially declared drug trafficking as a threat to ‘U.S. National Security’. This was a move legitimised the use of hard military force 5. This would have also moulded public opinion into supporting the war on drugs, diverting attention from the final stages of the grid locked cold war. Several years later, in 1990, many US and Latin American leaders reached the conclusion that ‘drug production, smuggling and abuse as serious threats to national security and societal well-being' (Kapiszewski, 2002). Since this view on the drugs trade emerged it has become the dominant issue in US-Latin American relations.

Towards the end of the 1980’s ‘drug related crime, common delinquency, guerrilla terrorism and the military response’ claimed the lives of approximately 300,000 people each year (Strong, 1996). Because of the international effects of the drugs trade has led to many operations being conducted by states and organisations worldwide. With governments putting vast amounts of resources into attempts to stop the drugs trade we have seen many different strategies, some of which have displayed better results than others. One of the biggest projects to date has failed to produce any substantial results.


Plan Columbia.

The US has given over $1.3 Billion to this ambitious plan hoping eradicate all traces of the drug trade from Columbia, however this funding has mostly gone to hardware and interdiction, leading to dismal results. In 2002 the US aimed for an 11% defoliation of the coca plant, by spraying coca fields with toxins that kill the plant, but because of the nature of these hard tactics the final satellite surveillance of Columbia at the end of the year showed an overall increase of 25% as it had just been pushed to other areas (McCoy, 2003). However, although America has dealt with a lot of the problems presented by the drugs trade, since the 1990’s many more countries have began to feel it’s devastating effects.

Towards the end of the 1980’s the Cartels had surpassed the demand for drugs in the US and had flooded the market, which saw prices plummet. In 1982 a kilogram of cocaine was being sold in the US for $60,000 but by 1988 the price had dropped to $20,000. The Cartels had to think of other ways to maintain their enterprise and keep things as profitable, their final solution was simple; Expand into Europe. The weight of drugs confiscated in Europe more than doubled between 1989 and 1990 from 6 tons to over 14 tons. (Hargreaves, 1992). There were several logical reasons for this move.


One reason would have been the pressure applied by the US as the War On Drugs budget grew, along with it’s support, putting more and more pressure on the Cartels. Secondly, because of cultural and language similarities with the Spanish and Portages it made shipping and communications between. Thirdly, Europe was a relatively new market, with prices being far higher, making the long trip worthwhile and finally, the solidification of the European Union and push for cross-border trading of goods made for some perfect cover and decreased the chances of a shipment being caught.

The effects have been felt all over Europe. In the UK the average value of a drugs seize increased from £46,200 to £80,400 between 1990 and 1997. Cocaine and Heroin seizures increased by 54% and 139% respectively
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. This was not a coincidence that the same trends present in America in the 1980’s were appearing all over the European Union.


Globalisation as a factor?


Some have argued that globalisation was one of the key factors in contributing to the expansion of the Columbian drug dealers; this is a greyish statement. Scott Burchill (2001) shows that if globalisation is measured as economic interdependence of ‘trade and capital as a percentage of the national GDP’ the levels in 1999 are approximately similar to those of 1910. However, this is only one side of globalisation that the Cartels would have taken advantage of.

The communications aspect of globalisation however would have been fully utilised by organised criminals worldwide. It is true technological advances have revolutionised the way people communicate, and in true organised crime style the Cartels and Mafias have taken something and utilised it to their advantage. The ‘globalisation’ of organised crime and growth of communication did not fortuitously fall out of the sky at the same time. With these technological advancements the leaders of drug rings can now ‘work from home’ in countries like the United Kingdom and the US. (Ciprut, 2001). This position is just one example of the mafia using modern technology to their advantage.

It has also been rumoured that the organised criminals worldwide have come together and began to cooperate with each other in order to maximise their profits. The Columbian Cartels have successfully integrated parts of their business empire with Russian mobsters to expand their operations. From as early as 1992 some Columbians have been spotted visiting Russia, with an estimated 40 tons of Columbian cocaine infiltrating the Russian border in 1997 (Thompson, 1998).


Strike Two: New solutions to old problems?


During the years of the cold war, and the initial expansion of the Latin American drug trade we saw how Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, although taking tough anti-drug stances, only referred to the problem as criminal and health issues. However, by the time the cold war had finished and more attention was given to the drugs trade it soon became obvious that the problem was greater than first thought.


Recently there has been some success in reducing the volume of cocaine produced in Latin America, Columbia has gone from producing over 80% of the world’s cocaine in the mid 90’s to a more conservative 50% in 2005 7. However coca production in Bolivia and Peru have increased by 17% and 14% in 2004 alone, showing how success in one area of the Andes simply leads to the re-location of production into a neighbouring area.

One of the new tactics used in Latin America to decrease the effectiveness of Cartels and their support among the general public is simply raising some awareness regarding the harm inflicted by Cartels. A recent study has shown that because many Latin American governments in the past have been affiliated with – and even sponsored cartels – that it shows a ‘widespread lack of awareness of how harmful Cartels are’. 8. This new mechanism attempts to increase cooperation with the Latin American governments, which has not been optimal due to this misunderstanding about how cartels are more harmful than good. I would argue that a similar scheme aimed at the citizens of the most effective countries will also help to clear away any illusions about how positive the Cartels really are for their area.

Another modern approach to bringing down a Cartel is to ‘Penetrate their cloak of secrecy’
9. This method involves having getting a gang member to testify against fellow Cartel members with first hand information with a promise of a reduced sentence, even political immunity. Since this began in 1993 it has generated dozens of convictions and fines of over $1 Billion.


While the success of many of these plans may sound large the overall War on Drugs has not produced any strong results. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent in many different ways without ‘significantly reducing the levels of illegal drug use or potency of illegal drugs on the street’ (Woodiwiss, 2001). This only goes to sow that a change of tactics are needed for the future.


One of the largest problems in the War on Drugs is the location of the manufacturing plants in Columbia. Paul Deihl (1994) lists some of the handicaps placed against the Columbian and external troops. High risk of combat (Cartels have no reason to co-operate), Rebel guerrilla group alliances roaming the country, rugged and unfamiliar terrain and the risk of peasant farmers also becoming violent are all factors against any troops deployed into the region. Again, using state terms the – hard military aspects of the – war on drugs is not dissimilar to a Civil War between a rebel group and a state, with the possibility of external states providing backup.

Despite all of the military and hard action against Columbia and the drug groups within the country, marijuana is arguably the bigger target within the United States. Approximately 1 in 3 people above the age of 12 have smoked marijuana at least once and America has over 2 million daily users at present (Schlosser, 2004).



Strike Three: An answer for tomorrow.


To this day, some twenty-five years after the Cartels and their leading role in organised crime began to flourish, Columbia is still a relatively dangerous area of the world. It shows major examples of ‘human insecurity’ to its citizens and the criminal organisations still ‘undermine the capacity for the government to rule the country’ (Hough, 2004).

Whilst it would perhaps be slightly unethical to give the Cartels any praise, through the eye’s of a Realist thinker they have managed to successfully become one of the most powerful and influential groups worldwide. They converted the use of violence into a tool used simply for the gain of power in one way or another. They have made the most of technology, using it to create a vast global empire, finding and exploiting new markets worldwide, to achieve more power. They spend their profits, not just on luxurious items, but on bribes and weapons that will make the future easier for themselves. Their organisational structure has, for the most part, remained almost impenetrable to any form of action; even the death or jailing of the most powerful leaders have had minimal effect on their operations. If there was a business award ceremony for illegal organisations it’s safe to say that the Columbians would have a good chance at winning any category, from power to profit and everything in between.


A final argument is that drugs generate money for governments. Whilst much of Latin America struggled with economic recession in the 1980’s Columbia remained relatively unaffected. Loretta Napoleoni (2004: 153) also notes that banks in Florida get a substantial cut of the money generated when drugs come into the country, which adds to the national money supply. This, she argues, is why the government continues to put pressure on Latin American governments instead of reducing domestic consumption.


The only ‘solutions’ I can put forward, that have not already been worn-out by governments and organisations worldwide would be; to increase the number of undercover spy’s – or moles – that infiltrate criminal organisations and systematically deconstruct entire sections thorough hard evidence and testifications gathered from the government agents. Although it is undoubtedly a very dangerous method, especially for the agents involved, it would be cost-effective and has the potential for success.

The other method I can suggest would be to legalise all drugs. Whilst it sounds like a radical statement this move could wipe out all types of drug orientated groups off of the map in a relatively short time. Governments could control and tax the drugs with, prices being more reflective of the cost of manufacturing. This would also reduce the crime rate associated with drug users. This could easily be done by any willing government but at what price?



Word Count - 5059

Reports.

1: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. ‘Illicit trade and organised crime: new threats to economic security?’ Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1998.

2: Profile: Columbia’s Armed Groups. Accessed on 18th November 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4528631.stm

3: Transparency International. ‘Global Corruption Report 2005’. Part Three: Country reports. Accessed on 24th November 2005 from website.
http://www.globalcorruptionreport.org/download.html

4: The Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics and International Operations. ‘Drugs, Law Enforcement and Foreign Policy’. US government printing office, Washington 1989. Accessed 23rd November 2005:
http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB113/north06.pdf

5: President Reagan: Message to congress on America’s Agenda for the future.
February 6th 1986. Accessed on 20th November 2005:
http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/speeches/1986/20686c.htm

6: The Prevention of Drug Smuggling: Report by the Comptroller and Auditor general. H.M. Customs and Esxise. 1998. Page 2.

7: United Nations, Office on Drugs and Crime. ‘The World Drugs Report 2005’. Page 12. Accessed: 16th November 2005 from
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/world_drug_report.html

8: OECD & Inter-American Development Bank. ‘Fighting Hard Core Cartels in Latin America and the Caribbean’. 2005. Accessed on 18th November 2005.
http://www.iadb.org/europe/LACF2005/pdf/IssuesPaper-session1.pdf

9: OECD. ‘Fighting Hard Core cartels: Harm, Effective sanctions and leniency programmes’. 2002, Page 7. Accessed on 19th November 2005.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/41/44/1841891.pdf Bibliography:Abadinsky, Howard. ‘Organized Crime’ Chicago, Nelson Hall. 1994. Page 242.

Aguero, Felipe. ‘Fault lines of democracy in post-transition Latin America’. North-South Centre Press, Lynne Rienner Publishers. 1998. Page 266.

Bergquist, Charles. ‘Violence in Columbia: The contemporary crisis in a historical perspective’. Wilmington, Scholarly Resources. 1992 Page 243.
Page 112.Burchil, Scott. ‘Theories of International Relations: 2nd Edition’. Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2001. Page 96.Ciprut, Jóse V. ‘Of fears and foes: security and insecurity in an evolving political economy’. Westport, London, Praeger. 2001. Page 197
Clutterback, Richard. ‘Terrorism, Drugs and Crime in Europe’. New York, Routledge, 1990.Collier, Simon. ‘The Politics Of Memory’. Cambridge University Press. 1990. Page 133.Diehl, Paul F. ‘International Peacekeeping’. Baltimore, John Hopkins University Press. 1994. Page 155.Fals-Borda, Orlando. ‘Subversion and societal change in Colombia’. New York, Columbia University Press. 1969. Page 166. Farah, Douglas. ‘Calis quiet cartel becomes number one’. Washington Post. October 17th 1990.

Foweraker, Joe. ‘Governing Latin America’. Cambridge, Polity Press, 2003. Page 158.

Freemantle, Brian ‘The Octopus: Europe in the grip of organised crime’. London, Orion. 1995. Page 327

Hargreaves, Clare. ‘Snowfields: The war on cocaine in the Andes’. London, Zed Books 1992. Pages 4 & 8.Hough, Peter. ‘Understanding Global Security’. Routledge. 2004. Page 216.Hobbes, Thomas. ‘Lavaithan’ 1668. Accessed on 26th November 2005.
http://etext.library.adelaide.edu.au/h/hobbes/thomas/h68l/chapter13.html Jordan, David C. ‘Drug Politics: Dirty Money and Democracies’. University of Oklahoma Press. 1999. page 5.

Kapiszewski, Diana. ‘Encyclopaedia of Latin American politics’. London, Oryx Press. 2002 Page 328.Kline, Harvey. ‘Colombia: Portrait of Unity and Diversity’. Westview Press. 1983. Page 38.
McCoy, Alfred. ‘The Politics Of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the global drug trade’. Chicago, Lawrence Hill Books. 2003. Page 443.

Morgenthau, Hans. ‘Politics among Nations: The struggle for power and peace’. New York, 1949. Page 1.

Moser, Caroline. ‘Encounters with violence in Latin America: Urban poor perceptions from Colombia and Guatemala’. London, Routledge. 2004. Page 121Napoleoni, Loretta. ‘Terror Inc. Tracing the money behind global terrorism’. Penguin 2004. Page 55 & 153. Peeler, John A. ‘Building Democracy in Latin America’. Lynne Reinner Publications. 1998. Page 172.

Robinson, Jeffery. ‘The Laundrymen: inside the world’s third largest business’. London, Pocket Books, 1998. Page 220.

Ryan, Patrick. ‘Understanding Organized Crime in a Global Perspective’. Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications. 1997. Page 79.Schlosser, Eric. ‘Reefer madness: and other tails from the American Underground’. Penguin. 2004. Page 19.Strong, Simon. ‘Whitewash: Pablo Escobar and the cocaine wars’. MacMillan Press. Page 5.Thompson, Alan. ‘Columbian and Russian drug groups link up’. Financial Times, March 28th 1994. Page 4.

Walker, William. ‘Drugs in the western hemisphere: An odyssey of cultures in conflict’. Jaguar Books, 1996. Page 211.

Walt, Stephen. ‘International Relations: one world, many theories’. Chapter 4.7 from:
- Little, Richard. ‘Perspectives on World Politics’. Roultedge. 2005/2006. Page. 397
Woodiwis, Michael. ‘Organized Crime and American power: a history’. Buffalo, University of Toronto press. 2001.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Pol - Electoral Systems

Are P.R. electoral systems more democratic than first-past-the-post systems?


Introduction.

Without divulging too deeply into the many definitions of the word ‘democratic’ and using a substubstantial proportion of this essay trying to find a best-fitting description for a democracy of any given size at any given time in history, I’m simply going to take it as the original term – translated as “rule by the people”(McLean, 1996) – linked with today’s form of mass political participation; voting at general elections.

With this simplified definition I intend to show the correlation between what the people vote for at an election, and what how accurate – or ‘democratic’ – the composition of parliament is with the translation of votes to seats under two different types of electoral systems. Regarding PR I intend to use the aspects common to all forms of P.R. because, again, describing the costs and benefits of each system would use an extensive part of the essay.


First Past The Post.

The initial and most obvious discrepancy in the FPTP electoral system is the disproportional way in which the seats are allocated regarding the number of votes. Due to the nature of the voting – the candidate with the most crosses gets his or her seat in parliament – there is no compensation for any other contender, regardless of how close or far they finished in relation to first place.


Figure 1.


In the ‘Bristol West’ constituency in the 2005 general election, as shown in figure 1, the winning Liberal Democrat candidate – Stephen Williams – claimed his seat in parliament with 38% of the vote whereas the second and third candidates, polling 30 and 27 percent respectively received nothing. On a regional level this is highlights how ‘un-democratic’ this system is because the new politician of this region failed to gain the endorsement of over 60% of his constituents that voted. When amplified to the national level the deficit between what the people vote for and what governs them is much easier to see.

Figure 2 shows the result of the 12 most ‘successful’ political parties in the same election. Upon very little scrutiny the (dis-) proportion of votes to seats easily highlights the major irregularity in the distribution under the FPTP system. With 645 parliamentary seats at steak the Labour Party managed to win 55% of them with only 35% of the national vote; 30 seats more than required for a parliamentary majority. Almost as alarming is that the Conservative party, with 92% of the Labour number of votes only managed to attain 30% of the parliament seats. As the parties get smaller the discrepancies get larger. The Liberal Democrats achieved a respectable 22% of the national vote but were only awarded an underhanded 10% of the seats. The party that lost out the most was the UKIP party who didn’t get a single seat despite receiving more than half a million votes, beating eight smaller parties that got up to 9 seats. Under a P.R. system the UKIP would have received 15 seats.


Figure 2.


With a system as inequitable as first past the post being used for over a century in the UK it is obvious that there are some advantages. Firstly, although the elected government isn’t democratic per-se, it is a strong government, which is left to make fast and accountable policy and decisions. FPTP is also very easy to use and understand, and produces a clear government in a fast time.

However, even with 65% of the voters, and considerably less if you include the non-voting population, disagreeing with the government the electoral system is unlikely to change because any government with such a strong majority would be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to pass a bill changing the current system. The labour party once set up an Electoral Reform commission chaired by Raymond Plant, and even after strongly recommending a P.R. system in his 1993 Plant Report (Georghiou, 1993), when Labour finally reclaimed governance the commission unsurprisingly dissolved.

It is obvious that a system with such glaring misrepresentation as FPTP cannot be classified as ‘democratic’ as the final picture always differs greatly to that painted by the voters. Proportional Representation (PR) in one form or another has been the dominant ‘other’ in the battle for a change in the Great British electoral system, and the many other countries that still advocate use of FPTP.


Using several different formulae the different forms of PR all aim to – as its name suggests – proportionally represent the voters by giving a party with Y% of votes, Y% of the seats in parliament. The most obvious democratic advantage of this set up is that it is a much more attractive system for the smaller parties that lose out under a pluralist electoral system.


Problems With Proportional Representation.

The ‘new’ Bundestag in Germany is a perfect example of PR at work. With 5 major parties competing, bargaining or begging for power in the legislative arena, the politics and decision-making works in a totally different way from that under the FPTP system (Site 1). However this is where the most striking question regarding PR and whether it really reflects what the people vote for.

The obvious issue being that when parties form coalitions to achieve the parliamentary majority they have to be open to change their policy aims and agendas. As noted, between 1969 and 1998 every government in office included the FDP party as a ‘junior’ part of the coalition (LeDuc, 2002). This party with an average of 5% of the German vote managed to decide which half of the Bundestag had the numerical advantage.

This democratic discrepancy highlights the fact that 30% of the population could vote for one parties agenda, only for it to be altered or even completely changed to satisfy the demands of another party to form a coalition. Using the original definition of democracy, this scenario almost stands to be the antithesis of the idea that the voters have the final say on how their country is governed.

Not only does this raise the issue of how ‘democratic’ it is when the smallest party can quintessentially become the most powerful in the political arena but in an even less democratic scenario the small party could be of an undesirable or extreme nature, requesting more severe demands than those of the centre based parties. Because of the small number of votes required to attain seats under PR these extreme parties can find electoral success in some regions of a country where there agenda is relevant.

It is also a historical fact that Hitler and Mussolini were both elected under a form of PR and in due course managed to completely corrupt and overthrow the political system (Bogdanor, 1994). Although in most democratised countries there is now a safeguard to prevent a similar scenario from taking place there are still authoritarian regimes in Africa that illegitimately overthrown democratic structures.

Another disadvantage proposed by critics of a PR system is that the only limit to the number of parties present in any institution in some countries is the number of seats. In a country like the Netherlands where there is a form of PR with no lower threshold some would argue that there are too many parties. In 1971 fifteen political parties gained seats in a single election (Franklin, 1992). Franklin later goes on to show; it is a hard task keeping up to date with the new parties, splinter parties, name changes, merges; and that every election since the 1960’s has caused a profound change in government. Whilst this might be seen as good for democracy but it does have it’s cost on how functional parliament will be.


Whilst there has been some recent research that shows a slight relationship between the “ideological position of legislature and the ideology of the electorate” (Powell, 2000) under a P.R. system other intellectuals have found that there is a definite association with PR electoral systems and party interactions of “competing and conflicting” or “highly unstable” nature (Dahl, 2000).


Side By Side:

Whilst I initially argued that FPTP was ‘undemocratic’ because the seat allocation was poorly representational of the public vote, it can be argued that a PR system of governance could be viewed as undemocratic in that a party may have to change its policies to maintain a coalition, essentially de-legitimising the emphasis of a parties manifesto in electoral campaigns.

It must be noted that eighteen of the previous twenty-two UK Governments – since 1922 – have been majority (Craig*, 1989). Meaning that the winning, and runner up, parties don’t have to change any of their policies after a general election, thus the voters – usually – know what a party stands for. In this respect at least one third or so of the country will be happily governed by the party of their choice with the exact policies that they voted on.

This situation is completely different under a PR system where the notion of coalitions implying the “readiness to compromise rather than engage” (Skyes, 1990). Using the original sense of the word ‘democratic’ this means that under a coalition government every vote cast could potentially be a wasted vote, as parties would have to barter and haggle with each other for influence over the legislation, breaking down the FPTP idea of a government using its accountability to put it’s ‘popular mandate’ into action. It would be foolish to assume that voters don’t expect a coalition government, or indeed split their ticket and vote for two parties but it is the uncertain outcome of the post-election stage that could lead to so many different outcomes.

This situation of a pluralist, minority government at first seems to initially be undemocratic when it comes to voting and seat allocation but on the other side of the coin it is far easier to “throw the rascals out” (Strom, 1990) and entirely replace the government under FPTP. With a PR system a poorly performing party can linger in parliament or even as part of coalition government with only the smallest percentage of votes.


Conclusion.

Research has also shown that it is only desirable for FPTP to be replaced by a form of PR once a multi party system has been established (Kutz, 1980). As for the UK, if this hypothesis is correct, a change in electoral system may be on the cards as the 2005 election is the closest that Westminster has been to a three-party system in modern political history. If this trend continues it could well be the major change in gears towards PR that the 65% of Brits have been waiting for.


Stripping both types of electoral system down to the bare bones it is easy to show that neither is perfectly ‘democratic’ – in the classical sense that it accurately reflects the bidding of the public – and that each has mirroring flaws and advantages. One system is clearly designed for a two-party with the democratic flaw that many votes are wasted at the time of the election; whereas the other is designed to be as close to the publics electoral will ass possible but has the fundamental failing that the parties’ goals change as soon as the in the post-election period.

In an ideal world it shouldn’t make a single difference what form of electoral system is used because the government in any country should be making decisions based on what is best for the general good of the population. It is also true that on a national magnitude a perfect ‘democratic’ social order, ruled exclusively by everyone, is impossible and that somewhere along the line, a person or group of peoples’ views will have to be compromised.

It doesn’t seem to be a question of how democratic an electoral system is but which choice is most compatible for a country’s history. Furthermore it would appear that the electorate in a country like the UK have not been titillated by the presence of PR in Europe because, despite fluctuations between high and low turnouts over the past one-hundred years, the electoral system has been one of the only constants.


Word Count: 2,012

Bibliography:

Bogdanor, Vernon. ‘What is proportional representation?’. Oxford University Press. 1994. P148

Craig, Fred W.S. ‘British Electoral Facts: 1832-1987’ Gower 1989.
*Figure includes four General Elections since the book was published.


Dahl, Robert A. ‘On Democracy’ Yale University Press. 2000. P.136

Franklin, Mark. ‘Electoral change: responses to evolving social and attitudinal structures in western countries’ Cambridge University Press, 1992. P255

Georghiou, Mary. ‘British Labour Party moves to P.R.’. Voting and Democracy Report: 1993.

Kutz, Richard. ‘A theory of parties and electoral systems’. Hopkins University Press. 1980

LeDuc, Lawrence. ‘Comparing Democracies: New Challenges in the study of elections and voting’. Sage. P.95

McLean, Iain. ‘Oxford concise dictionary of Politics’. Oxford University Press, 1996. P.139

Powell, G Bingham. ‘Electoral Laws, disproportionality and median correspondence: implications of two visions of democracy’. British Journal of Political Science. 2000 P.390

Skyes, Leslie. ‘Proportional Representation: which system’. Hornbeam Press. 1990. P.76

Strom, Kaare. “Minority government and majority rule” Cambridge University Press. 1990. P.74

Tables & Internet Resources:

Figure 1. Table from:*
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/100.stm
Accessed 7th November 2005.

Figure 2. Table From: *
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/scoreboard.stm
Accessed 7th November 2005.

Site 1: Info taken from:
http://www.bundestag.de/
Accessed on 8th November 2005

* The same source was used in both examples for consistency.